๐ฐ Lamp Roulette
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Press the button to see whether a lamp lights up at your chosen probability โ a probability experience game modeled after the classic Japanese "Juggler" pachislot lamp effect. A fun way to get a feel for what a given win rate actually looks like over many tries.
How to use
- Choose a win probability to try, or enter a custom one.
- Click "PUSH" to light the lamp.
- Watch the stats (total tries, wins, current streak) as you repeat the process.
How the calculation works
Each press draws whether the lamp lights, at the odds you set (1 in 10 to 1 in 500, or any value). The game tracks presses, wins, the actual win rate, the longest losing streak and more. Every draw is independent, so earlier results never affect the next one. However โdueโ a win feels, the odds are the same every time. The chance of k misses in a row at odds of 1 in n is (1 โ 1/n)^k. On average you win once every n presses, but losing streaks several times that long are common.
Worked example
At odds of 1 in 100 No win in 100 presses: (0.99)^100 โ 36.6% After about 69 presses, the chance of at least one win passes 50% 230 misses in a row: about 9.9% (it happens about once in ten tries) Over a short run, an actual rate of 1 in 50 or 1 in 300 is nothing unusual.
Things to be aware of
- This is a no-money game for getting a feel for probability.
- Believing a win is more likely after a run of losses is known as the gamblerโs fallacy.
- Enter a whole number of 1 or more for custom odds. 1 lights the lamp every time.
FAQ
Can I set a custom probability?
Yes โ choose from preset probabilities or enter a custom one.
Does it track my stats?
Yes โ total tries, wins, and best win streak are displayed live.
Does this involve real money?
No. It's a free experience for getting a feel for probability, with no real money involved.
Can I experience how long a losing streak can run at low odds?
Yes โ set a low win probability and try it repeatedly to get a feel for how long a streak of misses can realistically last.
Can the actual win rate differ from the set probability?
Yes โ with a small number of tries, the actual rate (how often the lamp lit) can drift somewhat from the set probability. It converges closer to the set value the more times you try.